Friday, December 1, 2017

Canadian Companies Providing Dividend Growth Guidance

If you follow Enbridge Inc (TSE: ENB, NYSE: ENB), you might have noticed the downward reaction in the company's share price when management did not confirm their dividend growth guidance during their Q3 2017 earnings call on November 2nd.  Saying that they were in the process of completing their strategic review, management indicated that they would be in a better position to answer during their investor day scheduled for December 12th. As background, Enbridge is one of the rare Canadian companies that provides detailed dividend growth guidance.  Until November 30th, their investor relations website indicated that the company expected to grow their dividend by 10-12% from 2018 through 2024. 

After the November 2nd earnings call, shares of Enbridge continued to trend downwards losing 7% of their value. Clearly, investors were concerned enough about management not confirming their initial dividend growth projections to punish the share price.  On November 30th, two weeks ahead of the company’s December 12th investor day, management said the dividend would increase by 10% next year, and then by the same amount through 2020. The decline in dividend growth (10% vs 10-12%) along with the shorter period (2020 vs 2024) is in response to concerns relating to Enbridge’s ability to fund $22 billion in major growth projects.

While considering Enbridge, I wondered how many Canadian companies provide dividend growth guidance. Since I couldn't find a comprehensive list online for the Canadian companies that provide such guidance, I started with my only portfolio and worked outward adding a couple other companies that I know provide guidance (many of which are on my watch list). Please consider the table below a starting point for further research and let me know of any other Canadian companies that provide dividend growth guidance. I'll gladly update the table with your input.

TransCanada Corp (TRP)
Dividend growth of 8-10% per year through 2020
Enbridge Income Fund (ENF)
Dividend growth of 10% per year through 2020
Emera Inc (EMA)
Dividend growth of 8% per year through 2020
Telus Corp (T)
Dividend growth of 7-10% per year through 2019
Capital Power Corp (CPX)
Dividend growth of 7% per year through 2020
Fortis Inc (FTS)
Dividend growth of 6% per year through 2022
Algonquin Power (AQN)
Dividend growth of 10% per year through 2021
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP.UN)
Annual distribution increases of 5-9%
Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP.UN)
Annual distribution increases of 5-9%
Brookfield Property Partners (BPY.UN)
Annual distribution growth of 5-8%


Does dividend growth guidance make you any more likely to invest in a dividend growth company? 

Friday, September 29, 2017

Q4 2017 Dividend Growth Watchlist

After a relatively quiet third quarter on the investment front, with only two transactions, I expect to be a bit busier during Q4.  My daughter was born on July 4th, and now that she is sleeping for longer stretches at a time, I feel more rested and ready to make capital allocation decisions. Since my investment holdings consists of my unregistered account, my TFSA, and RRSP, that will be the format in which I present my considerations.

Unregistered Account
After initiating a full position in the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSE: CM) and an almost full position in Canadian Utilities Limited (TSE: CU) in September, I expect to complete two more purchases during Q4 in my unregistered account. I shifted my focus from Power Financial (TSE: PWF) to their parent company Power Corporation (TSE: POW) as the latter has higher dividend growth (7% vs 5%) at a slightly lower valuation. I am also interested in two monthly dividend paying companies with a history of growth, who are both out of favor with investors. Cineplex Inc (TSE: CGX) has long interested me given my love of movies and their near monopoly of movie theaters in Canada. A slow summer contributed to weak Q2 results. Although their share price has bounced off a 52-week low (up about 15%), the idea of collecting a 4.3% yield on one of my favorite Canadian companies is tempting. On the flip side, their 3.7% dividend growth is not terribly inspiring, plus I fear for their long-term relevance with technology enabling studios to by-pass the traditional movie theater distribution channel.  I am also interested in Altagas Ltd (TSE: ALA) given their share price weakness resulting from the massive WGL acquisition that was not taken positively by investors. With management forecasting near-double digit dividend increases out to 2021, backed up by growing EBITDA, this 7% yielder is near the top of my watchlist

TFSA
As the cash position in my TFSA continues to grow, my plan is to increase my position in Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (TSE: BIP.UN). Brookfield management's record of dividend growth is outstanding, as is there record of accreditive acquisitions and organic growth. The fact they did a USD 1B equity raise in Q3 without materially impacting their share price is further evidence of the trust that investors place in Brookfield's excellent management team.

RRSP

With a growing cash balance in my RRSP and since the Canadian dollar has risen a bit vs the US dollar, I will likely add enough shares to complete my position in Tanger Outlets (NYSE: SKT).  I continue to find the long-term risk/reward equation favorable on Tanger, selling well below its historical Price/FFO multiple. While I can understand the counter argument that online retail sales will eat into Tanger's foot traffic, sales, and margins,  I remain a fan of their outlet centers that consumers will continue to visit in order to secure bargains not available online. The only other company I'm considering adding in either my RRSP or TFSA is Choice Properties REIT (TSE: CHP.UN). Choice would allow me to gain some exposure to the grocery space in Canada since Loblaws are their top tenant, while offering an impressive yield of ~5.6% and a history of distribution growth, all at a reasonable valuation.


Which companies appear at the top of your watch list for Q417?

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Q3 2017 Watch List & 2017 Goal Progress

Since the second quarter of 2017 was pretty hectic for me on the investment front with nine transactions, my Q3 watch list is more limited in scope.  With shares of 35 companies in my portfolio, an all time high, it would take a high quality company at a great value in order to add a new name to my list of investment holdings. Since my portfolio consists of my unregistered account, my TFSA, and RRSP, that will be the format in which I present my considerations.

Unregistered Account
After initiating a position in Aecon Group (TSE: ARE) in May, it was with mixed feelings that I saw the stock climb over 8% in the last month. The rise is share price put a temporary delay on my plans to slowly add to my position.  My attention shifted more toward Enbridge (TSE: ENB) and Enbridge Income Fund (TSE: ENF) as their prices have fallen along with oil prices. My main issue is that I currently own full positions in each of these related companies, and have to consider if going overweight makes sense from a diversification perspective. In terms of other companies that are on my radar, First National (TSE: FN), CIBC (TSE: CM), and Suncor (TSE: SU) are all interesting. First National and CIBC are both attractively valued, but don't help my portfolio diversification aspirations. Although Suncor would help from a diversification perspective, it's difficult for me to justify paying more than 40 earnings for such a cyclical company. If there was a dark horse that provides me diversification (into the insurance sector) and a fair value (P/E ~ 11X), it would Power Financial (TSE: PWF) which I have owned before, but is not a consistent dividend grower. Lastly, I have also considered re-initiating a position in Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSE: IPL) and then selling my Kinger Morgan position in my RRSP in order to avoid overexposure to pipelines.

TFSA
With very little cash left in my TFSA, I don't foresee any transactions unless they are short-term trades to increase my position in Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (TSE: BIP.UN). Brookfield management's record of dividend growth is outstanding, as is there record of accreditive acquisitions. 

RRSP

Having decided to take a break from paying my discount brokerage $30 per quarter for a fair CAD/USD exchange rate, my plan for the third quarter is to use my cash and dividends to top-up my position in A&W Revenue Royalties Income Fund (TSE: AW.UN).  With a yield over 4.5%, and a P/E in the 20X range partely due to underwhelming first quarter results, I'm fine with adding to this position due to A&W's strategy of more urban locations throughout Canada.  The only US stock I would consider changing my plan for is Tanger Outlets (NYSE: SKT), as I find the long-term risk/reward equation favorable despite a slight recent run-up in share price. 

Since it's almost the middle of the year, it seems like an appropriate time to check-in on my simplified 2017 goal:

Increase forward dividend income by $2600 while achieving a dollar-weighted average organic dividend growth rate of at least 5%. 

I'm very happy to report that my forward dividend income is up by over $1000, while my dollar-weighted average organic dividend growth rate is currently 3.47%. If the forward income appears behind schedule, it's mainly due to growing my cash position in my unregistered account by about 125%. This reflects the difficulty I am having finding quality Canadian companies to invest in at fair prices. In contrast, if the 3.47% appears I am ahead of schedule, it is misleading as most of my holdings increase their dividends in the first half of the year. Although I think the 5% target remains achievable, it will require me putting capital to work in companies who raised their dividend by more than 5% while continuing to avoid dividend cuts.


Which companies appear at the top of your watch list for Q317 and how are you progressing toward your financial goals?

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Sector Concentration in Canadian Index Investing

As I grow older and my life becomes dominated with family, work, and other important commitments, passive index investing becomes more appealing. As documented regarding my two ETF experiment to index my son's registered education savings plan, I love the simplicity of quickly rebalancing the portfolio once a year. I don't track the ETFs at all and no monitoring is undertaken. The hard work to identify attractively priced stocks, accumulate a position over time, while monitoring company news for red flags is completely eliminated.

However, when I start to dig deeper into the composition of various Canadian indices that are featured in ETFs, the sector concentration is shocking. Even if you look at the broadest index in Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index, which covers approximately 95% of the Canadian equity markets, the combined exposure to financials (36.1%) and energy (19.9%) means 56% of your investment is concentrated in only two sectors. Key sectors for long-term growth such as information technology (2.9%) and health care (0.7%) are an insignificant portion of the index. With the top 10 holdings of the market capitalization weighted index accounting for 38.7% of the portfolio, returns are heavily reliant on financials (five of the top ten) and energy (three of the top ten). With 248 constituent companies, the market capitalization weighted index is heavily tilted toward the large financials, energy, and materials companies that dominate the Canadian landscape.

(Source: web.tmxmoney.com)

If the thought of including 248 companies is overwhelming, and you'd prefer to stick with the top 60 companies in Canada, maybe the S&P/TSX 60 Index would be a better fit. Although not as broad as the S&P/TSX Composite Index, the S&P/TSX 60 Index represents leading companies in leading industries. Its composition is also based on market capitalization, leading to even higher sector concentration in financials (38.4%) and energy (20.5%). The top 10 holdings represent 50.8% of the total index, reflecting high concentration in financials (five of top ten) and energy (three of top ten). Interesting long-term growth sectors such as technology (2.4%) and health care (0.4%) are basically a rounding error in the S&P/TSX 60 Index. 

(Source: web.tmxmoney.com)

As a investor with a strong preference for dividends, I also decided to examine the S&P/TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index. In order to be considered for this index, the company must have increased ordinary cash dividends every year for at least five consecutive years. Interestingly, instead of being weighted based on market capitalization, this index is weighted based on indicated annual divided yield. This means companies which higher dividend yields (i.e. Corus Entertainment, Northview REIT, Granite REIT, etc.) compose a higher percentage of the index. Despite this difference in weightings, financials (34.0%) and energy (18.3%) continue to account for over half of the index value. Information technology represents an insignificant 1.7% of the index, and there is no health care exposure. The top 10 holdings account for 22.1% of the index, reflecting the different weighting criterion.

(Source: web.tmxmoney.com)


The Canadian indices covered above clearly contain a great deal of exposure to the financial and energy sectors. One might go as far as to say that passive index investors in Canada are making very big bets for and against particular industrial sectors. Despite the simplicity and convenience that passive investing offers, I'll stick to dividend growth investing that allows me more control over the companies and sectors I'm investing in, even if it requires more work. Lastly, although I'm always a little hesitant when sharing the diversification of my portfolio by industry sector (see here for YE16), the above analysis makes me feel slightly better about my own sector diversification. 

How does your sector diversification compare to that of the leading Canadian indices???


Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Five Canadian Utility Companies with Growing Dividends 2017

In April 2016, when I was looking to add a utility company to my investment holdings, I reviewed Five Canadian Companies with Growing Dividends. After initiating a position in Emera Inc. (TSE: EMA) in October 2016, and completing my position in May 2017, it seemed like an opportune time to update my tables in order to determine if other Canadian utility companies warranted further consideration for dividend growth investors. Included below in the initial table from April 2016, and an updated version for June 2017.

April 2016

CU
ATCO
FTS
EMA
AQN
P/Etrail
32.4
29.3
15.7
17.7
25.5
Yield
3.6%
2.9%
3.7%
4.0%
4.7%
EPS Payout
76.4%
74.0%
38.4%
63.3%
104.7%
# Years Div Gro
45
23
42
9
6
1-yr Div Growth
10.2%
15.2%
10.3%
18.8%
10.0%
5-yr Div Growth
10.1%
14.9%
5.6%
7.9%
9.9%
1-yr Rev Growth
-9.3%
-9.2%
24.1%
-3.4%
9.1%
5-yr Rev Growth
3.8%
3.2%
12.6%
11.8%
41.5%
1-yr EPS Growth
-55.9%
-63.5%
85.0%
-3.9%
45.0%
5-yr EPS Growth
-7.0%
-11.5%
10.2%
10.4%
8.8%
S&P Rating
A/Neg
A/Neg
A-/Neg
BBB+/Neg
BBB/Neg

June 2017

CU
ATCO
FTS
EMA
AQN
P/Etrail
18.7
17.6
22.4
18.2
39.4
Yield
3.5%
2.6%
3.5%
4.3%
4.5%
EPS Payout
53.8%
41.0%
51.5%
51.8%
186.3%
# Years Div Gro
46
24
43
10
7
1-yr Div Growth
10.0%
14.9%
6.7%
10.0%
10.0%
5-yr Div Growth
10.1%
14.9%
5.6%
8.7%
8.9%
1-yr Rev Growth
4.30%
-0,7%
7.4%
53.5%
7.1%
5-yr Rev Growth
2.6%
0.3%
20.1%
23.0%
52.4%
1-yr EPS Growth
26.6%
7.9%
1.6%
-20.3%
0.0%
5-yr EPS Growth
1.7%
-3.0%
6.90%
12.2%
29.2%
S&P Rating
A/Neg
A/Neg
A-/Sta
BBB+/Neg
BBB/Sta


Here are some quick observations about each of the companies.

- A material improvement in earnings makes Canadian Utilities (TSE: CU) look cheaper from a valuation perspective and decreased their payout ratio. Although the dividend growth remains consistent around 10%, the company will ultimately have to increase their revenues and earnings in order to maintain the impressive dividend growth record.
- Atco (TSE ACO.X) is Canadian Utilities' parent company, and their earnings improvement also led to a cheaper valuation and lower payout ratio. Sacrificing a lower current yield in favor of 15% dividend growth might lead an investor to favor Atco over Canadian Utilities.
- Fortis (TSE: FTS) looks to successfully integrate their material US acquisition in order to continue their long history of dividend growth. Over the past year, slower EPS growth has led to the company appearing a tad overvalued based on their historic P/E multiple.
- Emera (TSE: EMA) also looks to continue successful integration efforts in order to support revenue growth. The company's P/E multiple has expanded and investors expect management to announce another 10% dividend raise this summer.
- Algonquin Power and Utilities (TSE: AQN) continues to perform strongly as their valuation grows in response to an impressive record of revenue and EPS growth. Note that using EPS in the P/E multiple and payout ratio might be ill-advised as some sort of free cash flow measure is likely more apt.

Although none of the above Canadian utility companies leap off the page at me, I think they are priced fairly in the context of the overvalued Canadian market.


Do you hold or are you interested in any of the five utility companies outlined above? 

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Activist Investors, Special Prosecutors and Inconsistent Posting

Instead of droning on about one topic today, here are three things that are top of mind. 

1. Activist Investors Push Granite REIT to Change

When I initiated a position in Granite REIT last spring, it was their combination of cheap P/FFO valuation around 10X and the above-average 4.5% distribution growth that attracted me to the company. Granite's management had just wrapped up a strategic review and decided to stay the course instead of taking any drastic action (i.e. a large strategic acquisition or divesture, putting itself up for sale, or paying a material one-time distribution). My investment in Granite REIT was a way for me to gain exposure to Magna (Granite's largest tenant), which is one of a handful of world-class companies we have in Canada, at an entry yield about double what Magna was paying at the time (6% vs 3%). 

A couple weeks ago, FrontFour Capital Group and Sandpiper Group announced they had acquired a 6.2% stake in Granite REIT and released a plan to "unlock value at Granite REIT". FrontFour and Sandpiper have proposed two of their directors for the upcoming election of Granite's board of directors. At a very high level, Frontfour and Sandpiper argue that Granite trades at a substantial discount to its fair value due to a misunderstood asset base, strategic failures, and a loss of confidence in management and the Board. Granite responded somewhat on their Q1 2017 earnings call and more detailed via this proxy circular.

As a unit holder of Granite, the attention that the activist investors have shed on the company has been beneficial from a share appreciation perspective. Frontfour and Sandpiper raise some relevant issues concerning Granite's lack of strategic action, overcompensated management team, and misunderstood asset base. However, Granite's response to their dissident shareholders also makes some prevalent points about the returns they have been able to generate shareholders over the past five years in excess of the TSE REIT index, the lack of successful track records of FrontFour and Sandpiper within the REIT space, and the absurdity of some of the activists' suggestions (i.e. selling some major holdings around Toronto to show stakeholders how much they are truly worth). 

With both sides continuing to argue their respective stances, I'm taking a wait a see approach as this is the first time one of my holdings is the target of activist investors. Even if FrontFour and Sandpiper are able to elect their two nominated directors to Granite's board, I question if they could push their agenda given strong opposition from the majority of directors. My view is that the activists have brought some additional coverage to Granite, forcing the company's management to justify their past inaction and firmly outline the path they are pursuing for future growth.

2. Special Prosecutor and Impeachment Talks Create Buying Opportunity

For those of you who keep close track of my Investment Holdings, you may have noticed some recent changes. The past week was officially my busiest ever, with three buys including initiating a new position in my Tax Free Savings Account. The combination of letting my cash build up to an uncomfortably high level (~8% of total holdings) and the downward momentum caused by the appointment of a special prosecutor to review the Trump Administration's ties to Russia both facilitated my three purchases. I'm considering another couple of investments outlined in my Q2 2107 watch list, and hope for continued volatility in the markets in the coming weeks. 

3. Inconsistent Posting Schedule

As I struggle to meet my once a week posting goal, I feel that I owe an explanation to readers. Beyond my current lack of ideas for interesting posts, more time spent preparing for the software launch I've been working on at my job over the past two years, and quality time required by my super energetic near three year-old son, I have another great reason for my inconsistent posts. My wife and I are expecting our second child early this July. There have been numerous preparations for the birth of our baby daughter that have caused a shift in my priorities. Although I enjoy writing as an outlet and have always found it beneficial to review my decisions relating to past stock purchases/sales, with the more outward focus of this blog, I'm finding less time to make quality posts that would provide value to readers beyond myself.  My expectation is that the number of entries I write will continue to decrease over the summer when our daughter arrives and likely continue on a downward trajectory for the foreseeable future. 


Did you take advantage of the US market selloff this week to make any stock purchases???


Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Is Buffett's Partial Exit of IBM a Warning Sign?

Last Friday, I was surprised to hear about Warren Buffett's decision to sell roughly a third of Berkshire Hathaway's stake in IBM. Although I admittedly don't hold Mr. Buffett in as high regard as other bloggers, I still respect his long-term track record as a stock-picker and empire builder. When justifying his partial sale, Buffett indicated that his assumptions relating the the valuation of IBM had changed since he started buying his stake six years ago and also referred to the company's strong competitors. Much like his defense of partnering with 3G Capital on recent deals, I found his justification for selling a third of his shares in IBM lacking in substance.

Instead of getting stuck in the weeds and overanalyzing Buffett's recent trade, I found a thought provoking tweet from one of my favorite dividend bloggers @dividendgrowth


For those who thought IBM was a great deal at $159 before Buffett disclosed his partial exit, clearly the 5% discount should make the current valuation even more compelling. The trailing P/E of about 12.5X and the dividend yield of 3.9% must look extra tempting to investors who choose to ignore the whims of America's most famous investor. The above tweet made me wonder if Buffett makes the same mistake as me when selling his investments too early.

Each quarter when Berkshire Hathaway files a 13-F form which discloses positions in their equity portfolio, there's a site that summarizes the filing to separate which positions Berkshire has added to and which positions have shrunk. Looking at the 2016 year-end filing, I thought it would be interesting to calculate the year-to-date total return on the eight positions that Berkshire materially decreased or exited in the quarter ending December 31, 2016. The year-to-date total returns (including dividends) for these eight positions is shown below.

Wal-mart (WMT) = +10.9%
Verizon (VZ) = -10.5% 
Liberty Media B (LMCB) = +9.8%
Deere & Co (DE) = +9.9%
Kinder Morgan (KMI) = -1.5%
Lee Enterprises (LEE )= -20.7%
Liberty Media A (LMCA) = -0.5%
ServiceNow (NOW ) = -15.8%

Average return of stocks sold = -2.3%

Granted, five months of returns calculated from a small sample of eight stocks doesn't provide sufficient evidence to conclude that Buffett does a better job selling his investments than the average retail stock-picker. One must also consider that once the 13-F of Berkshire is made public, certain investors and funds who blindly follow Buffett's every move scramble to sell the shares that he divested. It's also worth noting that the volume of shares associated with Berkshire's positions can create downward pressure and momentum on a company's share price when Berkshire starts shrinking their position. Despite all those disclaimers, the above results do partially support Buffett's status as seasoned investor. Although no one can consistently sell stock at the highest price, nor can they buy it at the lowest price, but avoiding big losers helps investors conserve their capital in order to continue making investments.

Although IBM has never been at the top of my watch list due to shrinking revenues and EPS supported mainly through share buybacks, in my view, Buffett's partial exit doesn't make it a more appealing long-term investment. Like many large-cap companies, IBM must determine how to grow their top line or at the very least maintain it in order to appease shareholders without adding excessive debt to their capital structure. Will IBM find that elusive top line growth without such a large investment of sticky capital from Warren Buffett? The answer to that question will ultimately determine if IBM's current stock price represents a good value or a value trap.

Does Warren Buffett's investment in a company make you more or less likely to invest in that company?